Drissi
06-17-2017, 14:53
ﻻﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻠﻢ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻗﺪ ﺭﺑﺤﺖ ﺃﻡ ﺧﺴﺮﺕ ﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ .
ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻔﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﻘﺔ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻓﻼﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻠﻢ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺈﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ .
ﻓﻤﺜﻼً : ﻟﻮﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ 1 ﻟﻮﺕ ﺟﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ .
ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺪﺃ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ .
ﺃﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺎﺳﺮﺍً $100 ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ = $10 .
ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺇﻧﻚ ﻟﻮ ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﻭﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺏ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ = $100 .
ﻭﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾ 30 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ .
ﺃﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺎﺳﺮﺍً $300 .
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ .
ﻓﻄﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻓﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻤﺔ Floating loss .
ﺃﻱ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻨﻴﺔ .
ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﻦ ﺗﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻌﻼً .
ﻭﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻓﻜﻞ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ , ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ 60 , 70 ، 80 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ , ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺊ .
ﻭﻟﻮ ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻳﺖ ﻟﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻪ .
ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺭﺍﺑﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ $100 ﻓﻠﻮ ﻗﺮﺭﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﺏ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻓﺴﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﺑﺤﻚ = $100
ﻭﻟﻮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ 50 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ .
ﻓﺈﻧﻚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﺤﺎً ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ $500 ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻮ ﻗﺮﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ .
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺭﺑﺤﺎً ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺎً .
ﻓﻄﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻓﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺭﺑﺤﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻢ Floating profit .
ﻭﻫﻮ ﻟﻦ ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻌﻼً .
ﻭﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺇﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻓﻜﻞ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ , ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ,70 80 ، 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ , ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻼﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺠﺄﺓ .
ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺤﺴﻢ ﺇﻻ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ .
ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻔﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﻘﺔ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻓﻼﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻠﻢ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺈﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ .
ﻓﻤﺜﻼً : ﻟﻮﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ 1 ﻟﻮﺕ ﺟﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ .
ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺪﺃ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ .
ﺃﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺎﺳﺮﺍً $100 ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ = $10 .
ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺇﻧﻚ ﻟﻮ ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﻭﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺏ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ = $100 .
ﻭﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾ 30 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ .
ﺃﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺎﺳﺮﺍً $300 .
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ .
ﻓﻄﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻓﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻤﺔ Floating loss .
ﺃﻱ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻨﻴﺔ .
ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﻦ ﺗﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻌﻼً .
ﻭﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻓﻜﻞ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ , ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ 60 , 70 ، 80 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ , ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻼﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺊ .
ﻭﻟﻮ ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻳﺖ ﻟﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﻟﻪ .
ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻚ ﺭﺍﺑﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ $100 ﻓﻠﻮ ﻗﺮﺭﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺋﻚ ﺏ 10 ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻓﺴﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﺑﺤﻚ = $100
ﻭﻟﻮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ 50 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ .
ﻓﺈﻧﻚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﺍﺑﺤﺎً ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻠﺤﻈﺔ $500 ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻮ ﻗﺮﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ .
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺭﺑﺤﺎً ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺎً .
ﻓﻄﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﺪﻳﻚ ﻓﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺭﺑﺤﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻢ Floating profit .
ﻭﻫﻮ ﻟﻦ ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻌﻼً .
ﻭﻃﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺇﻧﻚ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ﻓﻜﻞ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ , ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺇﻟﻰ ,70 80 ، 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ , ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻼﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺠﺄﺓ .
ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺤﺴﻢ ﺇﻻ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻐﻠﻖ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ .