Drissi
06-19-2017, 15:22
ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ
ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺪﺭﻛﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺭﺍً ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺠﻲ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ .
ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻟﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ .
ﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﻧﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ؟
ﻧﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺳﻴﺮﺗﻔﻊ 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ 5 ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻼً ﻓﻬﻮ ﻟﻦ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ , ﺑﻞ ﺇﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ ﺳﻴﺘﺨﻠﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺿﺎﺕ !!..
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ .
ﻓﻠﻮ ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﺭﻭ ﺍﻵﻥ
EUR / USD = .9800 ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﺭﻭ EUR /USD =.9900 ﺧﻼﻝ 5 ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ .
ﻓﺤﺘﻰ ﻟﻮ ﺻﺪﻕ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﻨﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻵﺗﻲ :
ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻵﻥ 9800. EUR /USD =
ﺛﻢ ﺳﻴﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﻋﺸﺮ ﺩﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺼﻞ EUR /USD = .9780 ﺃﻱ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾ 20 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻤﺔ = $200 ﻟﻮ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻗﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻳﺖ 1 ﻟﻮﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ .
ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺪﺭﻛﻬﺎ ﻓﻮﺭﺍً ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺠﻲ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ .
ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻟﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ .
ﻣﺎﺫﺍ ﻧﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ؟
ﻧﻌﻨﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺳﻴﺮﺗﻔﻊ 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ 5 ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻼً ﻓﻬﻮ ﻟﻦ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ , ﺑﻞ ﺇﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪ ﺳﻴﺘﺨﻠﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎﺿﺎﺕ !!..
ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﻤﻠﺔ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ .
ﻓﻠﻮ ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﺭﻭ ﺍﻵﻥ
EUR / USD = .9800 ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ 100 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﺭﻭ EUR /USD =.9900 ﺧﻼﻝ 5 ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ .
ﻓﺤﺘﻰ ﻟﻮ ﺻﺪﻕ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﻨﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻵﺗﻲ :
ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻵﻥ 9800. EUR /USD =
ﺛﻢ ﺳﻴﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﻋﺸﺮ ﺩﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺼﻞ EUR /USD = .9780 ﺃﻱ ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺾ 20 ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺗﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻤﺔ = $200 ﻟﻮ ﻛﻨﺖ ﻗﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﻳﺖ 1 ﻟﻮﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ .