مشاركة أرباح في شركة انستافوريكس - تحليلات يومية - دعم عربي

[Mohamed Samy]

Show full picture The spot rate is presently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel in 105.90 and is likley to rebound. However, a breakdown of these levels will entail a decline to its lower limit in the point 103.60.
Technical indicators provide sellers signals supporting the assumption of a return to its support in the nearest future. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at levels 105.90 with 106.50 and 106.70 seen as first targets. A breakdown in 105.70 will cancel this scenario.

[Mohamed Samy]

التحليل اليومى لليورو - دولار 27-4-2012
كون الزوج قمة مؤقتة عند مستوى 1.3260 وما زال الزوج يتداول فى نطاق عرضى اسفل هذا المستوى ولذلك لايزال النطاق العرضى الذى يتداول من خلاله الزوج سارى مادمنا بين تلك المستويين وهما مستوى 1.3385 كحد علوى ومستوى 1.2995 كحد سفلى ولذلك نتوقع فى الوقت الحالى استمرار التداول العرضى للزوج حتى كسر احد تلك المستويات
بكسر الحد العلوى عند مستوى 1.3385 يشير بذلك الزوج الى استمرار الارتداد التصحيحى لاعلى والذى بدأ منذ تحقيق الزوج لقاعه المحققة عند مستوى الدعم الهام عند مستوى 1.2625 ويستهدف الزوج عندئذ مستوى المقاومة عند مستوى 1.3485

وفى نفس الوقت وعلى الجانب الآخر كسر الزوج للحد السفلى عند مستوى 1.2995 يشير بذلك الى الى ان الارتداد التصحيحى للزوج من مستوى 1.2625 قد انتهى بتحقيق قمة محققة عند مستوى 1.3485ونرجع بذلك مرة اخرى لاستمرار الموجة الهبوطية للزوج والتى بدأت من مستوى القمة المحققة عند مستوى 1.4940 و تستهدف عندئذ اعادة اختبار مستوى الدعم الهام عند مستوى 1.2625


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[Mohamed Samy]

التحليل اليومى للاسترلينى - دولار 27-4-2012
فقد الزوج بعض من قوته الصعودية على مؤشرات المومينتم وبالاخص لمؤشر الماكد على شارت الاربع ساعات ولكن الزوج فى الوقت الحالى مازال فى اتجاه صاعد ويرتكز فى اتجاهه الصاعد على دعم ثانوى عند مستوى 1.6075 ونتوقع اذا لم يكسر الزوج هذا الدعم استمرار الموجة الصعودية للزوج
والزوج قد استطاع كسر منطقة المقاومات القوية عند مستوى 1.6165 وهى فى نفس الوقت نسبة 61.8% من نسب فيبوناتشى ولهذا يؤكد بذلك الزوج ان هبوطه من مستوى القمة المحققة عند مستوى 1.6765 قد انتهى بتحقيق قاع محقق عند مستوى 1.5235 وبذلك يستهدف الزوج الآن نسبة 100% من نسب فيبوناتشى عند مستوى 1.6360 وبكسر هذا المستوى يشير الزوج الى استهدافه منطقة مقاومات مابين مستوى 1.6620 ومستوى 1.6765

وفى نفس الوقت وعلى الجانب الآخر كسر الزوج لمستوى الدعم الثانوى عند مستوى 1.6075 يشير الى تكون قمة مؤقتة للزوج فى الوقت الحالى ودخول الزوج الى منطقة تداول عرضى بغرض التجميع



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[Mohamed Samy]

Show full pictureConsidering the USD/CAD pair's Hourly Chart we can see the following:
The Yellow channel is slightly bearish while the blue channel became almost transverse indicating the recent weakness of the bearish mood.
Last Friday's bearish movement was contained inside the Violet channel targetting Price Level 0.9805 which seems to constitute an Intraday Support for the USD/CAD pair.
At the moment the USD/CAD may be forming a double buttom reversal pattern at 0.9805 especially after it managed to make bullish breakout outside the bearish violet channel & above the intermediate line of the Yellow channel.
The USD/CAD pair will probably have an Intraday resistance level at 0.9845 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Yellow channel. However, a breakhrough above 0.9845 confirms the Double Buttom pattern targetting 0.9925.
These facts render Price Level 0.9805 as a valid low-risk Intraday BUY entry with SL placed below 0.9765.
TP levels are to be located at 0.9850 & 0.9900.

[Mohamed Samy]

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After the quite prolonged ascending trend the EUR/JPY pair’s correction continues its movement. Considering the rebound from Fibonacci correction level 23.6%, the corrective movement towards Fibonacci level 38.2% - 105.92 is likely to be continued. The quotes are expected to be fixed below this level resulting in decline towards the next Fibonacci level 50.0% - 104.22. Unfortunately, there were no bearish candlestick patterns formed near the reversal level 23.6% but, considering the rebound from this level we can assume the continuation of the downside correction.
4h

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The more detailed picture on 4H timeframe confirms these conclusions. Rebound from Fibonacci correction level 50.0% enables to assume the rebound near this level. Therefore, presently, the decline of quotes towards Fibonacci correction level 23.6% - 106.16 is likely to be continued. As long as this level is considered intermediary, quotes are expected to be fixed below it indicating the descending movement of the pair towards Fibonacci level of 0.0%– 104.63. This option is considered as the most favorable. The strong bearish formations Absorbtion and Harami pointed at the local reversal of quotes to downwards. Therefore the analysis of candlestick patterns confirms the current option with EUR/JPY decline.

[Mohamed Samy]

Show full picture Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1668 and will probably decline. However, a breakdown of these levels will reveal a significant potential and initiate a new trend.
Technical indicators provide buyers signals but as the resistanceremains broken, the assumption of a decline is true. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
Concerning previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will has broken its resistance in 1668 with 1678 and 1682 seen as first targets. Incase the level 1665 is passed thorugh, the proposed scenario will be cancelled.

[Mohamed Samy]

Show full pictureThe Daily chart depicted above shows that the GBP/USD pair could break its long-term downtrend line of January. Since then it has been trading within an uptrend despite some sideways consolidation in November and March.
Although the GBP/USD pair showed a significant bearish reaction towards 1.5950 - 1.6000 which gave some bearish expectations. The pair has failed to break through the level 1.5800 which allowed the bulls to make a strong push to the upside and break 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 1.5925 & 1.6090 respectively.
It is crucial that a short-term uptrend line was broken in the first week of April which was tested at 1.6125 last Friday which is expected to constitute a solid long-term resistance level at 1.6262 -1.6300 to prevent further bullish movement.


Show full pictureOn the 4H chart, we see that the GBP/USD pair has recently broken the consoildation range between 1.6077-1.6145 with successful retesting which allowed the GBP/USD pair to resume its bullish movement towards 1.6262.
Also on the 4H chart, the GBP/USD pair is expected to test the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel at 1.6330 which is a solid Intraday resistance level.
Untill now there is no significant bearish reaction towards the mentioned resistance levels it is recommended to wait till we get bearish confirmation with 4H closure below 1.6262. However, SELLING the GBP/USD pair at 1.6330 is considered as a valid SELL entry without waiting for confirmation.
TP levels are to be located at 1.6250,1.6155 &1.6100 with SL as daily closure above 1.6385.

[Mohamed Samy]

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Wave marking analysis:
During the whole last week the USD/CHF pair continued the slow descending movement. On Friday though it has managed to test the point 0.9050. Thus, the pair remains within the horizontal channel with levels of figures 90 and 93 seen as limits. We can assume, that when abc wave structure is completed within the horizontal corrective structure, the price will return to the April’s highs located near 0.9250.

Targets for the option with ascending movement (supposedly within the wave D):
0.9308 – 11.4% of Fibonacci
Targets for the option with descending movement (supposedly within the wave C):
0.9002 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
0.8863 – 261.8% of Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The current wave picture was reviewed but still remains controversial. The new horizontal part of the trend is likely to be formed. The rate has left the limits of the uprising channel confirming the assumption on the sideways movement. Considering the wave analysis, the C wave is likely to complete its formation enabling to reach the level 0.9002. The USD/CHF pair’s rate has been within the sideways channel between 0.9002 and 0.9308 levels for a long time. In general the current picture is rather controversial than clear. When the level 0.9002 is passed through, the wave D is likely to begin its formation enabling the pair to reach the point 0.9308.

[Mohamed Samy]

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setup:
We have been holding short positions expecting a possible Head and Shoulder reversal for last 2-3 weeks. As depicted above, prices are well supported above Channel Line. Furthermore, prices were fixed above 1.4750 just ahead of 1.4790 for 2 days. At the moment we assume that the 1.4790 level is likley to be broken through and bulls will target 1.5000 range. Onlyin case of channel line breakdown, bears will take the control and bullish outlook will be cancelled.
Trade Recommendations:
1. Exit Short positions.
2. Buy around 1.4700 levels, stop around 1.4600, targetting 1.5000.

Best Regards,

[Mohamed Samy]

Weekly Technical Levels:


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Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are considered as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility though it is possible to pass them through.
Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 line.
Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue the movement.
In case of the breaking news release that may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.



Observation (s):

• If the trend is of upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of the traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurately the psychological support and resistance levels.